Just 60 days prior when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach scolded him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard query to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
